Lisbon’s plans to replace its ageing F‑16s looked settled.
Now a late twist is putting Paris and Washington head to head.
Portugal’s air force was widely expected to join the long list of European buyers of the American F‑35. New signals from Lisbon, though, suggest that France’s Rafale has surged into the lead, reopening a high-stakes contest that mixes defence strategy, industrial politics and raw operating costs.
Portugal’s surprise rethink on its next fighter jet
For years, the Portuguese Air Force has flown upgraded F‑16MLU Fighting Falcons, bought from the United States and modernised to extend their life. Those jets are nearing the end of their useful service, and Lisbon needs a replacement by the early 2030s.
Early briefings from military leaders painted the choice as almost automatic. In May 2025, air force chief of staff Cartaxo Alves publicly argued that Portugal had “no other choice” than the F‑35A, the stealth fighter produced by Lockheed Martin and now widely used across NATO.
That position seemed logical. The F‑35 is already the preferred option for many allies, from Italy and the Netherlands to Poland and Finland. Interoperability with NATO partners, US training pipelines and shared logistics all pointed in the same direction.
The Rafale, initially dismissed as less advanced, is now seen in Lisbon as a credible, even attractive, alternative to the F‑35A.
Yet, behind closed doors, Portuguese officials began revisiting the file. Political tensions with Washington during the Trump presidency, especially around NATO funding and defence commitments, had already planted a seed of doubt. When the tender discussions deepened, cost estimates, regulatory constraints and industrial returns shifted the balance further.
Why the French Rafale is suddenly in front
Several factors appear to have boosted the Rafale’s chances in Portugal. None on its own is decisive, but together they form a persuasive package for a medium-sized European air force working with tight budgets.
The “ITAR free” argument
One of the Rafale’s strongest selling points is that it is “ITAR free”. That phrase refers to the US International Traffic in Arms Regulations (ITAR), a regime that gives Washington broad control over how American-origin technology is exported, modified or used.
A fully US-made system like the F‑35 is deeply enmeshed in ITAR controls. Any export, upgrade or integration of new weapons must clear American approval. For allies, that can slow decisions and limit their room for manoeuvre in foreign policy.
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By avoiding US-controlled components, Rafale offers customers more autonomy over upgrades, weapons choices and future export deals.
For Portugal, which often participates in EU defence initiatives and may want flexibility in future arms cooperation, that autonomy carries weight. It also reduces the risk that a future political dispute with Washington could affect operational availability or capability upgrades.
Operating costs and maintenance pressure
The second big factor is money. Buying a fighter jet is only the beginning. Over 30 or 40 years, fuel, spare parts, overhauls and software updates often cost several times the initial purchase price.
The F‑35 has improved in reliability but still faces criticism for high running costs and maintenance complexity. The Rafale, while hardly cheap, has built a reputation among operators for more manageable life-cycle expenses.
- Rafale: twin-engine fighter with relatively low fuel burn for its class
- F‑35A: advanced sensors and stealth, but demanding maintenance regime
- Budget: Portugal must renew its fleet without blowing its defence spending plans
For a country like Portugal, where defence budgets compete with social and infrastructure needs, the gap in annual operating costs can quickly outweigh the glamour of the latest stealth platform.
Not just planes: industrial and political stakes
Lisbon’s decision is not only about performance in the sky. It also touches on Europe’s drive for more strategic autonomy and on Portugal’s long-term industrial aims.
Potential side deals with France
If Portugal selects Rafale, Paris is expected to sweeten the package. French officials have hinted that a broader aerospace partnership could follow, including cooperation on drones or access to the next-generation air combat programme known as SCAF (Future Combat Air System).
That programme currently links France, Germany and Spain, with Belgium as an observer. Adding Portugal would strengthen the European dimension and offer Portuguese firms more work in high-tech defence projects.
A Rafale deal would signal a tighter alignment with emerging European defence projects, beyond the classic US-led framework.
Such industrial offsets matter. They create skilled jobs, anchor new technologies locally and help justify big-ticket military spending to domestic audiences.
Balancing NATO loyalty and European autonomy
At the same time, Lisbon must reassure Washington and NATO that it remains a reliable partner. The F‑35 has become almost a shorthand for close alignment with US policy, especially in eastern Europe.
Choosing the Rafale would not turn Portugal away from NATO, but it would place it in a growing group of allies—like Greece and Croatia—that operate advanced non‑US aircraft while remaining firmly inside the alliance framework.
The message is subtle: strong ties with the US, but more technological independence and a larger role for European industry.
The F‑35 and Saab’s Gripen still in the fight
Lockheed Martin and the US government are far from giving up. The F‑35 still holds powerful cards: cutting-edge sensors, stealth capability, a huge user base, and deep integration across NATO systems.
For Portuguese pilots, the F‑35 would mean joining an elite club flying one of the world’s most advanced fighters. For politicians, it would guarantee smooth relations with Washington for years to come.
There is also a late entrant complicating the picture: Sweden’s Saab, pushing the latest JAS 39E Gripen. That aircraft is cheaper to buy and operate than both Rafale and F‑35, and has proved attractive to smaller air forces looking for a capable but economical solution.
| Contender | Key strengths | Main concerns |
|---|---|---|
| Rafale (France) | ITAR free, competitive operating costs, strong air‑to‑air and air‑to‑ground capability | No stealth, smaller user base than F‑35 |
| F‑35A (US) | Stealth, advanced sensors, NATO standard, US political backing | High costs, strict US export controls, maintenance complexity |
| Gripen JAS 39E (Sweden) | Lower price, efficient to operate, modern avionics | Less powerful radar signature management, fewer users, smaller industrial ecosystem |
The Gripen’s late entry could give Lisbon leverage in price talks. Even if it is not chosen, its presence in the competition pressures both France and the US to sharpen their offers and industrial returns.
A fourth European win for Rafale on the horizon?
If Portugal signs for Rafale, it would mark the aircraft’s fourth recent success inside Europe, after Greece, Croatia and Serbia opted for the French jet. That would strengthen France’s hand in future tenders and show that non‑stealth fighters still have a strong market.
For Dassault Aviation, a Portuguese order would also secure more years of production and sustain its supply chain, from engine makers to avionics suppliers. That stability supports French and European defence planning, including investments in future systems.
Each new Rafale customer extends the programme’s life, spreads costs across more air forces and reinforces Europe’s own combat aircraft ecosystem.
What “ITAR free” and interoperability mean in practice
Two technical ideas sit quietly behind this debate: export control regimes and interoperability. They sound dry, but they shape what an air force can actually do in a crisis.
Being “ITAR free” gives a country more control over how it upgrades its jets or integrates non‑US weapons. For example, a Rafale operator can more easily add a European-built missile or sensor without waiting for Washington’s green light. That speeds adaptation to new threats.
Interoperability works the other way. An F‑35 squadron can slot into a US-led strike package with minimal adjustment, sharing targeting data and threat information in real time. NATO exercises have increasingly centred on this model. Portugal must weigh that convenience against the constraints attached to US systems.
How this choice could play out in a real crisis
Imagine a major security flare‑up on NATO’s southern flank, involving air defence systems from several non‑Western suppliers. An F‑35 fleet might excel at slipping past radar and coordinating attacks with US assets, but could be more dependent on the US for mission planning tools and software updates.
A Rafale or Gripen fleet might bring slightly less stealth, but allow Lisbon to adapt faster with locally chosen weapons and tactics, and to sign its own export or support deals with regional partners. That flexibility can support a more independent foreign policy, especially in Africa and the Atlantic where Portugal has longstanding ties.
For Portuguese taxpayers, the decision also shapes decades of spending. A lower-cost jet frees funds for drones, cyber defence, naval upgrades or space projects. A more expensive, high-end option might deliver prestige and capability but squeeze other areas of the defence budget.
As Lisbon weighs the offers on the table, the choice between Rafale, F‑35 and Gripen is turning into a case study of Europe’s broader struggle: how to stay close to Washington while building its own credible industrial and military backbone.